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Weekly Economic Monitor – The September Employment Report

By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Raymond James

The September Employment Report – Nonfarm payrolls continued to recover in September, although the pace of improvement has slowed and we are unlikely to return to February levels until the pandemic is well behind us. The impact of COVID-19 has been uneven, with job losses remaining more severe in lower-paying service industries. Consumer spending has improved, though mixed across sectors. Further fiscal support will be critical for the unemployed.

This Week – The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index should be consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy. Jobless claims are expected to be little changed, as California remains in a two-week pause in claims processing. The Vice-Presidential debate is likely to be a little more “presidential.” FOMC minutes are unlikely to shed new light on the Fed’s thinking. Chair Powell will speak on the economic outlook on Tuesday morning.

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